Saturday, February 23, 2008

GOALS AND A PLAN: ANALYSIS FROM ÖZGÜR GÜNDEM

"Here are Kurdistan's rebellious mountains, not Palestine's streets!"
~ PKK statement.


Özgür Gündem has a rundown of analysis on the current situation in Kurdistan. Beginning with a review of recent events, the bulk of which has also been posted earlier this week on Rastî.

ÖG then lists the likely goals and plan of the Ankara regime:


Dirty goals.

1. After the aerial operations, land operations for invasion started.

2. Turkey made the US accept its demands but, more importantly, Turkey promised to fulfill all the demands of the US.

3. Turkey's main agenda is the complete annihilation of PKK. For that reason, Turkey demands more effective solutions beyond support for aerial strikes. Turkey implemented more than 20 operations, however it did not achieve any result. This time, in order to achieve a successful result, Turkey demanded the following from the US, England, and Israel: Special forces will be used rather than the use of conventional force; provision of their training, weaponry, and technical support; point-target operations instead of a frontal war; the military and intelligence reinforcement for this type of operation; and finally, acquiring the support of the PUK and KDP. It is mentioned that, with the support of US and Israeli intelligence and technical support, PKK's top administrators will be targeted. Besides, Turkey wants to impede the annexation of Kerkuk to South Kurdistan, which, in exchange for South Kurdistan's cooperation against PKK, Turkey is willing to recognize without the inclusion of Kerkuk.

4. The US, Israel, and England will provide military, technical, and intelligence support to Turkey. In return, Turkey, to whom countless weapons have been sold, would take the side of the US, England and Israel, against Iran. In addition, Turkey would send troops to Southern Afghanistan, which most NATO countries refuse to do.

5. Talabanî accepted Turkey's demands. In return, he has been invited to Turkey.

6. In this invasion plan, more than Talabanî, Barzanî is concerned. It has been observed that there is a tremendous effort to convince Barzanî. However, Barzanî is not convinced because he knows that Turkey's only goal is not the annihilation of PKK but also the Kurdish authority in the South. For that reason, he wanted Turkey to take some concrete steps that would prove Turkey's only aim is PKK. Turkey, on the other hand, hinted that it could found a consulate in Hewler. In return, it wanted Barzanî to explicitly state that he is against PKK. At this point, the process stopped. Thus the operations began despite Barzanî. An implication of this action is "You do not have any options other than cooperating with Turkey or remaining silent; these are your only choices." The statement of the Turkish general staff, regarding the invasion operation, mentioning "blackmailing regional factors" confirms this fact.

7. Thus it is obvious that Turkey's only goal is not only the annihilation of the PKK, but all Kurds are targeted.


Seige plan.

1. Turkey is trying to cover the fiasco of the air strikes by mentioning that air strikes would not be effective so land operations are required. By doing so, Turkey is covering the billions of dollars that have been spent during the previous operations.

2. Thinking that PKK has been weakened by air strikes, Turkey aims to create a buffer zone in South Kurdistan parallel to the one in Şirnak, Siirt, and Hâkkari.

3. Turkey aims to lay seige particularly to PKK regions in South Kurdistan.

4. This policy benefits the US, which aims to gain Turkey's cooperation against Iran, because the US wants Turkey to increase its influence in the regions where PKK has a presence For that reason, the US supports Turkey.


ÖG notes that PKK will become stronger while under attack because the freedom movement has dominated the area for some time, with the guerrillas having far greater practical knowledge of the terrain as it actually is on the ground. We are also reminded that PKK has been preparing itself for Turkish ground operations--both invasion and point-target attacks--for the last two years. An example, from May 2005:


[TSK] unsuccessful with its operations

The HPG officials said that the [TSK] has been unsuccessful in its operations and that the HPG’s new way of actions on the basis of small groups of guerrillas with active and high action capacity led to [TSK]’s classical operation tactic to be in vain.

HPG officials said that as a result of this new way of action, [TSK] had difficulties in “imposing clashes on the guerrilla under its initiative” and that the [TSK] military troops have become an open target for the guerrilla teams who have spread well into the territory.

HPG officials drew attention that the guerrillas are no longer raid police stations but aim permanent points where [TSK] is well established in.

40% of HPG losses are as a result of informers and ambushes.

HPG officials said that this was “a reflection of the strategic changes made” and that the military strategy changed accordingly”. They underlined that “actions undertaken were no longer to establish free areas” but “to force the other side to a resolution”.

They also added that guerrilla losses, as a result, decreased in comparison with past years, but the [TSK]’s losses increased due to a change in guerrilla movement.

HPG officials said that in the last year [TSK] has been trying to gain control through on the spot operations based on intelligence and informants. Hence the 40% of the losses incurred has been due to informers and ambushes.

A decrease in the village guard losses

The balance sheet of one year also draws attention to the losses of village guards. It can be seen that after the decision of June it represents 1% of the total losses of the [TSK] as compared with hundreds of village guards losses in the 1990’s. It was pointed out that this is in accordance with the decision “if the village guards do not participated in active warfare they will not be treated as targets” of the HPG II Conference.


The clearest warning to the US-England-Israel-Turkey alliance is summed up in ÖG thusly: "Here are Kurdistan's rebellious mountains, not Palestine's streets!"

In the meantime, HPG freedom fighters have brought down a Cobra in Çemço, Zab region, and HPG has lost two guerrillas.

Şehîd namirin!

5 comments:

Gordon Taylor said...

You have read my mind. This is exactly the Gundem article that I hoped you would translate. Thank you.

Mimi said...

Mizgin,
Obviously this attack now puts the PKK on the defensive--technically they are still in their active self-defense role. Do you think they will now resume an agressive posture? Take the fight to Turkey as they did in 2005? Or, will the PKK be forced to return to urban attacks as in the 1990s? I was very surprised to hear about this on the news. Thank you for taking the time to translate the news for us!

Mimi

Anonymous said...

damn talabani. i wish he would just start being kurdish for once

Hamo said...

I am sure the Kurdish Freedom Fighters would stop Turkish incursion to the south Kurdistan but I just wonder if the official stand on Turkish-Kurdish brotherhood, living together with the Turks, Democratic republic, etc by the PKK stopped at least for now. If it were then this incursion by the Turks would bring all Kurds around the world together.

May be you can live with an Arab or Persian but not in a million years, you can live with a Turk... Brotherhood with the Turks is a disgusting slogan, which makes me sick to hear from anyone anymore,... even from the only freedom movement of the Kurds (PKK)

Mizgîn said...

No problem, Gordon.

You're welcome Mimi. It is too early to tell what will happen but I have no indications that HPG will change its defensive posture. HPG headquarters commander Bahoz Erdal has called for civilian uprising in North Kurdistan especially among the youth in the cities.

Youth continue to burn cars in Turkey and it seems to be this kind of thing that Heval Bahoz refers to at this point.

Talabani appears not to accept the invitation to Turkey. I guess Leyla Zana has shamed him with her remarks at the recent DTP conference.

Actually Hamo, I don't see any difference between Turks and Persians. However, there are a number of brave Turks who are open to a peaceful settlement with Northern Kurds and there are those Turks who, at this moment, are fighting alongside their Kurdish brothers and sisters in HPG.

After all, HPG is an equal opportunity employer.